By Raza Elahi
After the hard-fought recently-concluded Assembly polls, which pushed the Congress in the back seat, another round of tough battles is in store for the party. Elections of President, Vice-President and 58 Rajya Sabha MPs are all lined up one after another, but the ruling party at the Centre is in no position to have its sole say.
Will the party be able to find consensus candidates for President and Vice-President posts, or will it concede defeat or will it have some facing solution?
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN RS Polls?: Election for 59 RS seats that fall vacant in April is scheduled for March 20. The six-year tenure of Deputy Speaker in the House K Rahman Khan also comes to an end on April 2. Given the UPA’s numerical strength in the Rajya Sabha, where it finds itself in a minority, it is unlikely that the ruling coalition would be able to have its way, unless SP bails it out(among the seats falling vacant include 10 from UP).
A DALIT TO BE THE NEXT V-P?: While the vice-president Hamid Ansari’s five-year term is going to end in August (a month after the term of the President ends), his successor will depend on who becomes the President. If a Muslim becomes a President, then the V-P's post is likely to go to a Dalit or vice versa.
WHO'LL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT?: With UPA having just 30% vote share in the electoral college of the presidential election (The NDA has 28% while others command 42% of the vote share) due in July, it is certain that there's going to be a long drawn battle/negotiations among political parties before anyone settles in at Rashtrapati Bhawan.
There are reports coming in media that sympathisers of vice-president Hamid Ansari have begun hectic lobbying for fielding him as a candidate. According to them, he stands a good chance of emerging a consensus choice because, being a Muslim, he is likely to be backed by both Left parties and the Samajwadi Party that now commands a chunk of votes in the electoral college. But being seen as Congress man, Ansari's role on the last day of Lok Pal debate in the RS and may not go down well within many parties. The other names -- Pranab Mukherjee, Gopal Krishan Gandhi, Karan Singh (by the way his name crops up everytime during President & V-P elections, but gets eliminated soon), Meira Kumar and Sushil Kumar Shinde -- are all set to make their way out of the race.
WHAT'S THE OPTION FOR CONGRESS?: There is one name which is seen as NDA candidate, but SP and Trinamool may not oppose, and which Congress should propose is former President APJ Abdul Kalam. He was an NDA candidate (with the backing of SP and BSP) in his first stint in the Rashtrapati Bhawan. In getting Kalam in is a better option for the Congress this time, than facing defeat in the Prez poll. Congress may also find itself more comfortable with Kalam rather than any other NDA or SP-sponsored candidate. If this time Congress proposes his name, NDA may have no problem, and SP and Trinamool may also not ignore him because of his clean image and also being a Muslim candidate.
WHY KALAM AGAIN?: People of the country will certainly not ask why Kalam again because of his magnificent first innings. There is another reason too: Kalam's second innings will also save a good amount of tax-payers money, which the State spends on a former President.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
UP Muslims Play Their Cards Right
By Raza Elahi
The 2012 UP polls saw a usual scramble among all parties to woo Muslims, who can tilt the balance in 140 of the total 403 assembly constituencies. Unlike previous elections (say post-1989), when Muslim votes got divided, this time the community has voted sensibly. And thus the outcome: 69 Muslim MLAs, highest since the Independence.
Out of the 69 Muslim candidates who won, 43 belong to the SP. The party had fielded 78 Muslim candidates. The BSP, which gave tickets to 85 Muslim candidates, could get 16 seats. Among other Muslim MLAs, two belong to Congress, 3 to Peace Party (of Dr Mohd Ayub), 2 to Quami Ekta Dal (floated by Afzal Ansari) and three Independents.
RESULTS PATTERN: The Muslims largely voted in favour of SP, which helped the party to comfortably cross the magic figure. Results of the 140 constituencies, where Muslims are over 30% of population, show that SP won 72 seats, while BSP and Congress got 27 and 11 seats respectively.
INTERESTING MISS: Muslim-dominate Saharanpur failed to send any Muslim MLA to the Assembly. Mohd Umar, son-in-law of Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid Syed Ahmed Bukhari, lost from Behat in Saharanpur district.
QUICK COMMENT: Muslim voters in UP have realised the strength of their votes. They have preferred SP over Congress and BSP in a larger perspective, but also voted constituency-wise to increase their Muslim representatives in the Assembly. They have shown that no party can take them for granted.
LESSON & CHALLENGE: It is a lesson for Congress that 'crocodile tears' won't work and challenge for SP that promises are not made to break.
(elahi.raza82@gmail.com)
The 2012 UP polls saw a usual scramble among all parties to woo Muslims, who can tilt the balance in 140 of the total 403 assembly constituencies. Unlike previous elections (say post-1989), when Muslim votes got divided, this time the community has voted sensibly. And thus the outcome: 69 Muslim MLAs, highest since the Independence.
Out of the 69 Muslim candidates who won, 43 belong to the SP. The party had fielded 78 Muslim candidates. The BSP, which gave tickets to 85 Muslim candidates, could get 16 seats. Among other Muslim MLAs, two belong to Congress, 3 to Peace Party (of Dr Mohd Ayub), 2 to Quami Ekta Dal (floated by Afzal Ansari) and three Independents.
RESULTS PATTERN: The Muslims largely voted in favour of SP, which helped the party to comfortably cross the magic figure. Results of the 140 constituencies, where Muslims are over 30% of population, show that SP won 72 seats, while BSP and Congress got 27 and 11 seats respectively.INTERESTING MISS: Muslim-dominate Saharanpur failed to send any Muslim MLA to the Assembly. Mohd Umar, son-in-law of Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid Syed Ahmed Bukhari, lost from Behat in Saharanpur district.
QUICK COMMENT: Muslim voters in UP have realised the strength of their votes. They have preferred SP over Congress and BSP in a larger perspective, but also voted constituency-wise to increase their Muslim representatives in the Assembly. They have shown that no party can take them for granted.
LESSON & CHALLENGE: It is a lesson for Congress that 'crocodile tears' won't work and challenge for SP that promises are not made to break.
(elahi.raza82@gmail.com)
Thursday, March 1, 2012
The Poll Pilgrimage of Senior Editors
By Raza Elahi
During the poll season, you must have read many columns and seen TV programmes based on the journalists' tour to the poll-bound areas. Each journalist do his/her reporting in individual capacity for the organisation he/she works. But very few know that for the last one and a half decade some of the country's best-known journalists and columnists (around 15-20) travel in a group to check the pulse of the voters and obviously to predict the people's verdict.
At the end of every trip, the group does a poll. The person whose prediction comes close to the actual results of the election is declared winner.
The group, which include Shekhar Gupta (editor-in-chief, The Indian Express),Arindam Sengupta (executive editor, The Times of India), Radhika and Prannoy Roy (NDTV founders), Columnists Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, Paranjoy Guha Thakurta and Surjit Bhalla, former Businessweek journalist Manjeet Kripalani, former BBC journalist Sanjeev Srivastava and psephologist Dorab Sopariwala etc, has covered every Lok Sabha poll and important assembly elections - 19 trips so far.
As per the wishes of the organisers, the tours and information about fellow-travellers rarely get mentioned in media. However, recently, a newspaper report carried some interesting experiences of these high-profile journalists when they went out together on poll pilgrimages, but the reporter's efforts to find out frequent winners among those high-profile journalists were not successful.
(elahi.raza82@gmail.com)
During the poll season, you must have read many columns and seen TV programmes based on the journalists' tour to the poll-bound areas. Each journalist do his/her reporting in individual capacity for the organisation he/she works. But very few know that for the last one and a half decade some of the country's best-known journalists and columnists (around 15-20) travel in a group to check the pulse of the voters and obviously to predict the people's verdict.
At the end of every trip, the group does a poll. The person whose prediction comes close to the actual results of the election is declared winner.
The group, which include Shekhar Gupta (editor-in-chief, The Indian Express),Arindam Sengupta (executive editor, The Times of India), Radhika and Prannoy Roy (NDTV founders), Columnists Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, Paranjoy Guha Thakurta and Surjit Bhalla, former Businessweek journalist Manjeet Kripalani, former BBC journalist Sanjeev Srivastava and psephologist Dorab Sopariwala etc, has covered every Lok Sabha poll and important assembly elections - 19 trips so far.
As per the wishes of the organisers, the tours and information about fellow-travellers rarely get mentioned in media. However, recently, a newspaper report carried some interesting experiences of these high-profile journalists when they went out together on poll pilgrimages, but the reporter's efforts to find out frequent winners among those high-profile journalists were not successful.
(elahi.raza82@gmail.com)
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
UP Muslims Should Think Before They Vote
By Raza Elahi
As all the parties are busy in wooing Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh, it is time for the community to think and value the importance of their votes.
It is an irony that Muslim votes, which are around 16% in the state, get divided among the three main parties -- BSP, SP and Congress. There are just 55 Muslim MLAs in 403-seat UP assembly, despite the fact that Muslim votes play a major role in around 125 Assembly constituencies of which 80 seats have more than 20% of Muslim votes.
Although it is too early to predict the UP Assembly polls results, yet it is almost clear that there will be a hung Assembly. No party will likely to be in a position to form government on its own. As of now, two post-poll combinations are emerging and Muslims should also think in term of those combinations before they vote.
As Mayawati is losing ground -- courtesy scams, corruption charges and anti-incumbency factor -- she may not hesitate in joining hands with other parties after the result to remain in power. Congress and SP will certainly not go with BSP. This will leave Mayawati of no choice but to join hands with BJP. And the one likely post-poll combination is BSP-BJP combine with support of (if required) independents and other smaller parties.
SP, the other main party in the state, is leaving no stone unturned to encash all the anti-BSP plank with its strong party cadre. However, SP may also fall short of the magic figure.
The most interesting part of this Assembly poll is to see how Congress performs. Banking on Rahul Gandhi’s magic and his Muslim-Jat-Kurmi vote-bank innovation, Congress is certain to regain its lost glory, but again it also can't form the government on its own. In that case, the Congress will be more comfortable with SP rather than BSP in sharing the power in the state. It will also give Congress the support of SP MPs at the Centre. So, the second likely post-poll combination is Congress-RLD and SP combine with support of (if required) some fringe players.
Now, Muslim should vote in accordance with two things -- first, which of these two combinations suit them, and second how the number of Muslim MLAs can be increased.
It is clear that in most of the Muslim dominated constituencies there are at least two Muslim candidates fighting on the tickets of any of the four major parties -- BSP, SP, Congress-RLD and BJP. So, there are chances of their vote getting divided and wasted. Muslims should first think of which post-poll combinations will be better for the community. With BSP may go with BJP, Muslims should pick Congress-RLD and SP combine.
Now, the question is how Muslims should choose candidates between Congress-RLD and SP.
They should select candidates constituency-wise. Meaning, if any of these two parties (Congress-RLD and SP) has fielded Muslim candidates, then Muslim votes should go to Muslim candidates. If both the parties (Congress-RLD and SP) have given tickets to Muslim candidates in same constituency, then Muslims should pick any one of the two candidates and vote him/her en-bloc in that constituency. It is only then the number of Muslim MLAs can increase and the state can have a government which is better suited for the community.
(elahi.raza82@gmail.com)
As all the parties are busy in wooing Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh, it is time for the community to think and value the importance of their votes.
It is an irony that Muslim votes, which are around 16% in the state, get divided among the three main parties -- BSP, SP and Congress. There are just 55 Muslim MLAs in 403-seat UP assembly, despite the fact that Muslim votes play a major role in around 125 Assembly constituencies of which 80 seats have more than 20% of Muslim votes.
Although it is too early to predict the UP Assembly polls results, yet it is almost clear that there will be a hung Assembly. No party will likely to be in a position to form government on its own. As of now, two post-poll combinations are emerging and Muslims should also think in term of those combinations before they vote.
As Mayawati is losing ground -- courtesy scams, corruption charges and anti-incumbency factor -- she may not hesitate in joining hands with other parties after the result to remain in power. Congress and SP will certainly not go with BSP. This will leave Mayawati of no choice but to join hands with BJP. And the one likely post-poll combination is BSP-BJP combine with support of (if required) independents and other smaller parties.
SP, the other main party in the state, is leaving no stone unturned to encash all the anti-BSP plank with its strong party cadre. However, SP may also fall short of the magic figure.
The most interesting part of this Assembly poll is to see how Congress performs. Banking on Rahul Gandhi’s magic and his Muslim-Jat-Kurmi vote-bank innovation, Congress is certain to regain its lost glory, but again it also can't form the government on its own. In that case, the Congress will be more comfortable with SP rather than BSP in sharing the power in the state. It will also give Congress the support of SP MPs at the Centre. So, the second likely post-poll combination is Congress-RLD and SP combine with support of (if required) some fringe players.
Now, Muslim should vote in accordance with two things -- first, which of these two combinations suit them, and second how the number of Muslim MLAs can be increased.
It is clear that in most of the Muslim dominated constituencies there are at least two Muslim candidates fighting on the tickets of any of the four major parties -- BSP, SP, Congress-RLD and BJP. So, there are chances of their vote getting divided and wasted. Muslims should first think of which post-poll combinations will be better for the community. With BSP may go with BJP, Muslims should pick Congress-RLD and SP combine.
Now, the question is how Muslims should choose candidates between Congress-RLD and SP.
They should select candidates constituency-wise. Meaning, if any of these two parties (Congress-RLD and SP) has fielded Muslim candidates, then Muslim votes should go to Muslim candidates. If both the parties (Congress-RLD and SP) have given tickets to Muslim candidates in same constituency, then Muslims should pick any one of the two candidates and vote him/her en-bloc in that constituency. It is only then the number of Muslim MLAs can increase and the state can have a government which is better suited for the community.
(elahi.raza82@gmail.com)
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Indian media going gaga over Hina
By Raza Elahi
Pakistan's new foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar, who arrived in New Delhi on Tuesday amid hopes that the 34-year-old minister is not evidently aligned to the conservative mindset of her predecessors and might bring a refreshing change in diplomacy between the neighbours, has won many fans in India.
Though her political acumen is still untested as she navigates the troubled waters of the India-Pakistan relationship on her first major diplomatic outing, yet the female foreign minister has become talk of the town among Indian fans mainly because of her dress, smile and beauty.
It's not just the general public and twitterati, but the Indian media too, has gone gaga over Hina.
Look at the some of the flattering headlines of Indian newspapers on Wendnesday -- Pak Puts On Its Best Face (The Times of India); Pak bomb lands in India (Mumbai Mirror). Though most of the papers carried her photograph on the front page, The Pioneer carried a huge lead vertical picture on its front page. Economic Times's political page carried an info chart with her photo, saying Fresh face, Fresh start.
Hina made her fashion statement marked at the New Delhi airport itself when she landed in a monotone outfit of blue with delicately matched pearl jewellery, sunglasses and oversized Hermes Birkin bag.
As her talks with SM Krishna may not give our mediapersons to write much on diplomacy front, they certainly will continue to write more on Hina's style statement.
Pakistan's new foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar, who arrived in New Delhi on Tuesday amid hopes that the 34-year-old minister is not evidently aligned to the conservative mindset of her predecessors and might bring a refreshing change in diplomacy between the neighbours, has won many fans in India.Though her political acumen is still untested as she navigates the troubled waters of the India-Pakistan relationship on her first major diplomatic outing, yet the female foreign minister has become talk of the town among Indian fans mainly because of her dress, smile and beauty.
It's not just the general public and twitterati, but the Indian media too, has gone gaga over Hina.
Look at the some of the flattering headlines of Indian newspapers on Wendnesday -- Pak Puts On Its Best Face (The Times of India); Pak bomb lands in India (Mumbai Mirror). Though most of the papers carried her photograph on the front page, The Pioneer carried a huge lead vertical picture on its front page. Economic Times's political page carried an info chart with her photo, saying Fresh face, Fresh start.
Hina made her fashion statement marked at the New Delhi airport itself when she landed in a monotone outfit of blue with delicately matched pearl jewellery, sunglasses and oversized Hermes Birkin bag.
As her talks with SM Krishna may not give our mediapersons to write much on diplomacy front, they certainly will continue to write more on Hina's style statement.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
When two teams play, one wins and the other loses
By Raza Elahi
The much awaited India-Pakistan World Cup semi-final match in Mohali is set to begin today afternoon. For the last few days television channels and print publications of both the countries have covered every minutest details of 'what-will-happen' in the match in almost a warlike rhetoric.
The other day on an Indian news channels, two former cricketers Ravi Sashtri and Amir Sohail were almost trying to beat each other in totally biased opinions in favour of India and Pakistan respectively.
People on the street have attached the national pride and honour with this game and some have called it the mother of all clashes. They have gone crazy. They didn't mind buying Rs 250 tickets at a price above Rs 10,000 in the black market (in Mohali) a few days back.
Fans of both the teams want to see their team winning the game as this is the first match between the two countries since July 2008 which has taken place on the home soil of one of the teams.
Amid all this fever, the stage is also set for the cricket-diplomacy as two prime ministers will be watching the game. And, media is going extra mile to cover the politics behind the game.
However, somewhere between all these high-pitched noises, people as well as the media have perhaps forgotton the essence of the game. One should watch and appreciate the game and not the pre-defined winner. When two teams play, one wins and the other loses.
The two captains MS Dhoni and Shahid Afridi have made very balanced comments and people should watch the game and beyond in spirit of these comments of the two captains:
Shahid Afridi: "I hope that in the future, relations between India and Pakistan get better and stay better, whatever the results. There should be good cricket and people should enjoy the game."
M S Dhoni: “Somebody has to lose the game irrespective of what happens. It is a part and parcel of the sport. It doesn’t only happen in cricket — it happens in each and every sport”.
(elahi.raza82@gmail.com)
Monday, February 28, 2011
Cricket Chaat, courtesy TV news channels
By Raza Elahi
ICC World Cup 2011 is underway. The knives are out. The battle of supremacy is always in their minds. The motto is to outshine others. If your are thinking that I am talking about the teams participating in the ongoing cricket tournament, hold on. It is not about them but about Indian TV news channels scrambling for eyeballs during the Cup.
Every news channels seem to be in a race to outdo the other by getting an experts’ panel every day to talk about the nuances of the matches. They have special programmes titled, Big Toss and Kings of Cricket etc, as well as other talk shows that are trying their best to increase the adrenaline rush among the viewers.
There is no doubt that for about 1.2 billion people of the country cricket is not just a sport but something close to be called a religion. And that is why 24x7 news channels are in a rush to grab maximum eyeballs. But their extra effort most of the time turns boring. First, the anchors themselves become experts and try to speak most of the time than the experts and repeating the same thing again and again.
Then look at the experts who are not so expert popping up on every channels. Murli Karthik, Yograj Singh, Rohan Gavaskar, Aakash Chopra, Nikhil Chopra -- they all were certainly not good in their games at international level but are now leaving no stone unturned to give their viewpoints on TV. Though sometimes it is a delight to hear views of Geoffery Boycott, Imran Khan, Sunil Gavaskar, Ravi Sashtri, Allan Border, Zaheer Abbas and the likes appearing on different channels, it is just intolerable to sit and watch the Karthiks and Chopras.
But there is no prize for guessing why these channels have extended panels and programmes. The reason is simply not cricket. It is just the business and the market built around the cricketing action. All these hype and hoopla created by TV channels -- in the form of coverage, special programmes, discussions, contests and other off-the-field activities -- unnecessarily build pressure on Team India, a point which former Pakistan captain Imran Khan has also recently pointed out.
It will not be wrong to say that the excessive efforts of our news channels to present Cricket Chaat has become really chaat (boring).
ICC World Cup 2011 is underway. The knives are out. The battle of supremacy is always in their minds. The motto is to outshine others. If your are thinking that I am talking about the teams participating in the ongoing cricket tournament, hold on. It is not about them but about Indian TV news channels scrambling for eyeballs during the Cup.
Every news channels seem to be in a race to outdo the other by getting an experts’ panel every day to talk about the nuances of the matches. They have special programmes titled, Big Toss and Kings of Cricket etc, as well as other talk shows that are trying their best to increase the adrenaline rush among the viewers. There is no doubt that for about 1.2 billion people of the country cricket is not just a sport but something close to be called a religion. And that is why 24x7 news channels are in a rush to grab maximum eyeballs. But their extra effort most of the time turns boring. First, the anchors themselves become experts and try to speak most of the time than the experts and repeating the same thing again and again.
Then look at the experts who are not so expert popping up on every channels. Murli Karthik, Yograj Singh, Rohan Gavaskar, Aakash Chopra, Nikhil Chopra -- they all were certainly not good in their games at international level but are now leaving no stone unturned to give their viewpoints on TV. Though sometimes it is a delight to hear views of Geoffery Boycott, Imran Khan, Sunil Gavaskar, Ravi Sashtri, Allan Border, Zaheer Abbas and the likes appearing on different channels, it is just intolerable to sit and watch the Karthiks and Chopras.
But there is no prize for guessing why these channels have extended panels and programmes. The reason is simply not cricket. It is just the business and the market built around the cricketing action. All these hype and hoopla created by TV channels -- in the form of coverage, special programmes, discussions, contests and other off-the-field activities -- unnecessarily build pressure on Team India, a point which former Pakistan captain Imran Khan has also recently pointed out.
It will not be wrong to say that the excessive efforts of our news channels to present Cricket Chaat has become really chaat (boring).
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